Analysis-Lebanon's distressed debt soars to shaky new heights
Published on: Wednesday 17 September 2025
Lebanon's defaulted government bonds have nearly quadrupled in price over the past year as investors bet on signs of economic recovery but a wild variance in estimates of their likely worth after a restructuring could restrain any further rally. A "recovery value" for the bonds will not become clearer until lawmakers decide what level of losses struggling local banks must take, which in turn will inform how much money the government can funnel to bondholders. The bonds have rallied from just 6 cents on the dollar a year ago to close to 24 cents, following a political shake-up which ended more than two years of government paralysis that had exacerbated Lebanon's economic crisis.